Japan emerge as potential World Cup dark horses

Japan are emerging as one of the most intriguing dark horses for the 2026 World Cup, with a blend of individual quality, recent form and tournament experience that sets them apart from other outsiders. The tournament has expanded from 32 to 48 teams, increasing the potential for surprise packages, but few nations look better equipped for a deep run than the Samurai Blue.

Previous World Cup heartbreak

In 2022, Japan defeated both Germany and Spain to top Group E and advance to the knockout stage. However, they suffered familiar heartbreak, losing to Croatia on penalties in the round of 16 — the fourth time they have been eliminated at that stage. Now, four years on, as they prepare for their opening game against the Netherlands on Sunday (21:00 BST), there is growing belief that this could be Japan's most successful World Cup campaign.

Group F and recent form

Japan are in Group F alongside the Netherlands, Sweden and Tunisia. They are currently unbeaten in their past nine matches against European opposition. Since their elimination in Qatar, they have defeated two of Europe's highest-ranked teams — England and Germany — as well as Brazil.

Veteran leadership and high ambitions

Former Southampton defender Maya Yoshida, 37, who captained Japan in 2022, has travelled with the squad as a non-playing "support player" to provide leadership. "For me, reaching the quarter-finals — a stage we've never reached or even experienced before — is the main goal," Yoshida told BBC Sport. "Anything beyond that would be a bonus."

Manager Hajime Moriyasu has set even higher targets. "My goal is for the team to be one of the best of the best," Moriyasu told World Soccer Magazine before the tournament. "We have raised our level little by little through our national team activity. For me the task is to bring out the best in the players. We do have a lot of injuries but we have also proven that we have the squad to produce our best regardless of who plays."

European-based talent driving improvement

Japan's squad includes Daichi Kamada of Crystal Palace and Ao Tanaka of Leeds United. They became the first non-host nation to secure their spot at the finals after an almost perfect qualifying campaign. Nineteen of the 26 players in Qatar were at their first World Cup, and Moriyasu noted that they have since become the core of the team. "They have had winning the World Cup in their sights all of this time, and also maintained the mentality to keep improving towards that goal," he said.

Yoshida believes Japan's ability to compete with top FIFA-ranked nations is driven by the increasing number of players featuring regularly in Europe's top five leagues. "Of course, now more players play in Europe, especially high level European competitions," said Yoshida, who was capped 127 times. "At the beginning, I was at VVV Venlo, a bottom Dutch league team, which was very good for me to have a first step, but time has changed now. Japanese players' reputation is much higher. So now, [on a] daily basis or weekly basis, every player plays with or against World Cup level players."