Scotland's World Cup hopes: Can they advance as third-place finishers?

With 32 of 48 teams advancing to the knockout rounds of this expanded World Cup, it is more difficult to be eliminated than to qualify. But Scotland are in one of the tournament's toughest groups — alongside Morocco and Brazil — and may have to rely on being one of the best third-placed sides to progress.

They could beat Brazil on Wednesday (23:00 BST) to finish in the top two of Group C and go through automatically, while a draw would all but seal their progression. But it is unlikely to be a simple task against the five-time World Cup winners in Miami. BBC Sport looks at Scotland's situation and how likely it is that they will go through if they finish third.

What do Scotland need?

Scotland are in a comfortable position going into the final group games. The eight third-placed teams with the best records will avoid elimination — and Steve Clarke's side sit second in that mini league. The teams currently outside the top eight are the Czech Republic, Ecuador, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Senegal.

Scotland have three points after two games and a goal difference of zero — the same as Sweden, who top the third-place table. However, the danger for Scotland is they suffer a heavy defeat by Brazil, which means their goal difference would take a hit. If teams in the third-place table have the same number of points, the rankings will be determined by goal difference.

How crucial could goal difference be?

Very. According to Opta, a team finishing third with a goal difference of zero has a 95% chance of progressing to the knockout stage. Lose to Brazil by one goal and the chances of Scotland progressing with a goal difference of -1 would be 84%. Lose by much more and those numbers get quite a bit worse — 63% for -2, 42% for -3, 27% for -4 and 19% for -5.

The perils of playing final group game early

The frustration for Scotland is that by playing their final group game on Wednesday they will have a long wait to discover their fate. If they lose to Brazil they might not know their situation until about 05:00 BST on Sunday when Group J finishes. It puts Scotland at somewhat of a disadvantage because teams playing later in the week will have more idea of what result is needed to qualify. Those teams might be able to play for a draw or try to limit the scale of a defeat to protect their goal difference.

Results Scotland fans may need to look out for

If Scotland lose and finish with three points, there are a number of results they will need to look out for — they will want as many groups as possible with two teams finishing on fewer than three points.

In Group A, if Mexico beat the Czech Republic and South Korea beat South Africa, that would leave the team in third on one point. The next best scenario would be a big South Africa win to leave South Korea in third with three points and a poor goal difference. Wins for South Africa and the Czech Republic would spell bad news for Scotland, leaving the third-place finisher on four points.

One of the few games that take place before Scotland face Brazil that has a bearing on where Scotland could finish comes in Group B. Bosnia-Herzegovina and Qatar meet three hours before Scotland play and, if they draw, both sides will have two points. Scotland would also want group winners the USA to at least get a point against Turkey, to keep them out of the equation.

On we go to Group E. Ecuador and Curacao have one point apiece and play Germany and Ivory Coast respectively. Failure to win would mean whoever finishes third cannot better Scotland's tally of three points. In Group F, Scotland will be hoping second-placed Japan beat third-placed Sweden convincingly.