World Cup final could decide Ballon d'Or winner

When Spain and Argentina meet in Sunday's World Cup final, the thought of lifting the famous trophy will be the only thing on the players' minds. However, the result at New York New Jersey Stadium could prove significant beyond crowning the world champions — it could effectively decide who wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or.

The era of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo domination may be long gone, but in recent years there has still always been a clear favourite to scoop the prize. In 2026, it is different. There are plenty of contenders, although history tells us it is difficult to take top spot without also winning the Champions League or a major international tournament in the same year. Could the World Cup final decide who will earn the award — perhaps swinging it the way of Lamine Yamal or Messi — or will the winner be someone else? In one of the tightest races in history, the decisive moment might not have happened yet.

Biggest prizes usually precede Ballon d'Or

Harry Kane, Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe all put up extraordinary goalscoring numbers in 2025-26, but that is only one part of the story. More often than not, a nominee needs to win a major continental or international trophy. Only four of the past 19 Ballon d'Or wins have gone to a player who did not triumph in the UEFA Champions League, World Cup, European Championship or Copa America in the same year. Messi accounts for three of those (2010, 2012, 2019) and Ronaldo the other (2013).

Rightly or wrongly, that means the odds are stacked against Kane, Haaland, Mbappe, Michael Olise, Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham. Ousmane Dembele took the 2025 prize after winning the Champions League with Paris Saint-Germain. A successful defence this year means Dembele and team-mate Khvicha Kvaratskhelia are in the conversation.

That takes us to the World Cup final, where two candidates go head to head. Messi, at 39, is looking to win a record-extending ninth Ballon d'Or, while 19-year-old Lamine Yamal is hoping to better his second-place finish in 2025.

Who are the Ballon d'Or candidates?

Lionel Messi

We are now into what might be the fifth and surely final iteration of Messi, but somehow the Argentine genius is still producing extraordinary performances — almost as if it is 2011 and he is still conquering Europe with Pep Guardiola's Barcelona. While the level of opposition in Major League Soccer has to be considered when contextualising his prolific club stats for Inter Miami, Messi's World Cup exploits leave little doubt he is still among the very best. With eight goals and four assists, he has guided Argentina to a second successive World Cup final, and he narrowly leads the Golden Boot race, with one more assist than fellow eight-goal man Mbappe. Victory on Sunday would make Messi the first player in history to captain his nation to back-to-back World Cup triumphs.

Lamine Yamal

But Lamine Yamal might have something to say about that. While the teenage winger has not dazzled like he did when Spain won Euro 2024 — he has one goal and no assists in seven games — he has been a key part of a Spanish collective who have reached their first World Cup final since winning the 2010 edition. Lamine Yamal enjoyed another impressive season for Barcelona — 24 goals and 18 assists in 45 games — despite missing the final month of the campaign through injury. Barcelona won La Liga but fell in the quarter-finals of the Champions League, so Spain probably need to win the World Cup if he is to be named the world's best.

Harry Kane

Kane had a remarkable 2025-26 — the Englishman scored 61 goals in 51 games in all club competitions as Bayern Munich won a league and cup double. However, defeats in the semi-finals of the Champions League with his club and the World Cup with England could cost him.