France the team to beat? Chris Sutton predicts World Cup last-32

Sixteen of the 48 teams have been eliminated from the 2026 World Cup, but which of the remaining sides will survive all the way to the final at MetLife Stadium near New York City on 19 July? The hopes of another 16 nations will end after the first knockout round, which includes England against DR Congo and holders Argentina against surprise package Cape Verde.

It was a different team that caused the biggest shock in the final set of group games, however. While BBC Sport's football expert Chris Sutton and AI still predicted Cape Verde would lose to Saudi Arabia—from more than 50,000 users playing the BBC's new predictor game—39% of users correctly predicted a draw and 43% backed the African side to win. Instead, it was Ecuador that caught almost everyone out. From more than 56,000 user predictions for that game, only 597 correctly backed them to beat Germany. Chris and AI were also wrong about that one, but overall they both got 15 out of 24 predictions right from that set of matches. Again, users did better, with 17 out of 24, and they still lead the way with 72 of this World Cup's 104 matches now completed. Chris has been right 41 times (57%), AI has a score of 43 (60%), but users are doing even better with 48 (67%).

Before the tournament, Chris also predicted the order he thought each of the 12 groups would finish in. He correctly picked seven of the winners, but only got all four teams in the correct order in three of the groups. AI's predictions have been generated using Microsoft Copilot Chat, simply asked to 'predict the results of the World Cup last-32 ties'. The new BBC predictor game allows readers to pick a winner from each knockout tie.

Last-32 Ties

Sunday, 28 June: South Africa vs Canada

Los Angeles, 20:00 BST. After watching South Africa at Estadio Azteca in the opening game of this tournament, Chris Sutton said he was 'absolutely shocked' to see them finish second in Group A and make the last 32. 'I feel like they are here because South Korea took them too lightly in their final group game, which I understand in some respects, but I don't see Canada doing the same,' Sutton said. 'Canada boss Jesse Marsch gets a bit of stick for some of his behaviour but his team have got something about them and I like the way they play. It is going to be hard for South Africa to deal with their intensity.' Neither country had ever reached the knockout stage of a World Cup before, and Sutton called this 'a great opportunity for the co-hosts to go even further—I'll be shocked again if they don't.' Sutton's prediction: 0-3. AI's prediction: 1-2.

Monday, 29 June: Brazil vs Japan

Houston, 18:00 BST. Sutton, covering this game for Radio 5 Live, said he has 'a feeling there is going to be an upset here—although it would not count as an upset for me or my commentating colleague Ali Bruce-Ball.' Japan are Bruce-Ball's dark horses for the tournament, and Sutton said 'it wouldn't be fair to him if I didn't go with him on this game.' Japan beat Brazil for the first time in a friendly in Tokyo last October, and Sutton believes they will beat them again and knock them out. 'Whatever happens, it will be a fascinating match. Brazil could go on and win this World Cup and, if they do, it will be because of their manager, Carlo Ancelotti. He's a superb organiser, but I worry about them in the middle of the park, and I don't think they have got the legs to deal with Japan's rapid attacks.' Sutton's prediction: 1-2. AI's prediction: 2-1.

Monday, 29 June: Germany vs Paraguay

Boston, 21:30 BST. Germany boss Julien Nagelsmann had earned the right to make changes for their defeat by Ecuador because they had already won their group. Sutton expects Germany to be back to full strength here. 'We know how this game will pan out—Paraguay will defend deep and it will be up to Germany to break them down.'