World Cup knockout qualification scenarios explained

With the final round of group fixtures underway, the path to the World Cup final on 19 July is taking shape. However, with 32 of the 48 teams advancing to the knockout rounds, new tie-breaker rules, and a table of third-placed teams to track, staying across the permutations is complex.

As it stands, England, top of Group L, and Scotland, third in Group C, would be on the same path to meet in the last 16 in Mexico City on 6 July (01:00 BST) — but they must win their last-32 ties first. Scotland's 3-0 defeat by Brazil has left their hopes of advancing as one of the best third-placed teams hanging by a thread.

BBC Sport has developed a projection tool that updates in-game to illustrate the schedule to the final, with dates and times listed across three host countries and four time zones.

How knockout qualification works

Sixteen of the record 48 teams will be eliminated after the group stage, leaving 32 nations in contention for the trophy. The top two from each of the 12 groups advance to the last 32. The remaining spots go to the eight third-placed teams with the best records.

If two or more countries are level on points, head-to-head results are the first tie-breaker. If still tied, goal difference, goals scored, FIFA's Team Conduct Score (disciplinary metric for red and yellow cards), and finally the higher FIFA ranking from June's update are used. These criteria apply in the 12 groups of four and to rank the 12 third-placed sides.

Group A

Co-hosts Mexico became the first nation to qualify for the knockout stage and are assured of top place regardless of their final match result. El Tri will host a third-placed team from Group C, E, F, H or I in the last 32 on 30 June.

South Korea need only a draw against South Africa on Thursday (02:00 BST) to secure second place and face Canada. If South Korea lose to South Africa, they will be eliminated if Czech Republic beat Mexico. If the Czechs do not win, South Korea will finish third and must wait to see if three points sends them through.

Czech Republic and South Africa both have one point and must win to qualify. Four points will almost certainly be enough to go through in third. For second place, the Czechs can only take that spot if South Korea lose. If South Africa win, they will finish second unless the Czechs also win. If both win, and since they drew 1-1 with each other, second place would be decided on goal difference (Czech Republic -1, South Africa -2), then disciplinary record (Czech Republic -1, South Africa -12). If still level, Czech Republic take second on FIFA world ranking.

Group B

Switzerland won the group on seven points with a 2-1 victory over Canada. The Swiss clinched a last-32 tie against a third-placed team in Vancouver on Thursday, 2 July.

Canada finished as runners-up on goal difference with four points and face the runners-up from Group A in Los Angeles on Monday.

Bosnia-Herzegovina beat Qatar 3-1 to finish third on four points, which will almost certainly be enough to qualify as one of the best third-placed teams.

Group C

Five-time winners Brazil topped the group on goal difference with seven points after a 3-0 win over Scotland. They now play the runners-up of Group F in Houston on Monday.

Morocco went through in second place on seven points after beating Haiti 4-2.