Chris Sutton's World Cup Semi-Final Predictions

With the 2026 World Cup down to the final four, BBC Sport football expert Chris Sutton has made his predictions for the semi-finals, which will determine who advances to the final at MetLife Stadium near New York City on Sunday.

France vs Spain: The De Facto Final?

"The semi-final between France and Spain should be the final based on what I've seen," Sutton said. "Spain are the best footballing side in terms of the way they play and control games, while France have the firepower and the flair."

The match is scheduled for Tuesday, 14 July in Dallas with a 20:00 BST kick-off. Sutton, who will be at the game for BBC Radio 5 Live, believes the winner of this tie will go on to win the World Cup. "As far as I am concerned, France and Spain have been the best two teams at this tournament - for me, whoever wins this game also wins the World Cup," he added.

Spain's only disappointment has been the form of Lamine Yamal, who has been on the periphery in many games. Sutton noted that when he watched Spain's round of 16 win over Portugal, Nuno Mendes handled Yamal comfortably. Yamal will now face France left-back Lucas Digne, and Sutton expects Yamal to fancy his chances one-on-one. "Spain will definitely need him to turn up," Sutton said, recalling Yamal's goal when Spain beat France in the Euro 2024 semi-final.

Despite Spain's strengths, Sutton favors France. "I still can't look past France as winners," he said. France have scored 16 goals in six games, winning all in 90 minutes. Only Argentina (17) have more goals, but four of Argentina's have come in extra time. Sutton expects France to play on the counter-attack, exploiting Spain's brave possession and pressing style. "Because of how brave Spain are with the way they play with the ball and press without it, I can see France having quite a few opportunities on the break," he explained. Spain have conceded only one goal so far, but Belgium created chances on the break in the quarter-finals. "With the pace and quality France have up front, I feel like they can definitely punish them," Sutton said. He predicts a 3-1 win for France, while AI predicts 2-1.

England vs Argentina: A Golden Opportunity

In the other semi-final on Wednesday, 15 July in Atlanta (20:00 BST), England face Argentina. Sutton believes England will never have a better chance to reach a World Cup final. "England will never get a better chance of winning a World Cup semi-final than this," he said. "Argentina are the holders and they are streetwise and, of course, they have got Lionel Messi... but this is an average Argentina side compared to some of their great teams of the past."

Sutton contrasted Argentina with France and Spain, saying, "I look at France and Spain in the other semi-final and they are not in their ballpark." He covered Argentina's quarter-final win over Switzerland and described them as "extremely lucky," noting that Breel Embolo's red card changed the game. "Until he was sent off, Switzerland were the better team in the second half," Sutton said. He added that the Swiss could complain about the VAR intervention for Embolo's second yellow card, but it was simulation by Embolo.

England have not been at their best, relying on big moments and benefiting from a gentle draw. However, Sutton sees a great chance for them to get past Argentina for many reasons.

Prediction Game Results

Sutton, AI, and users of the BBC's predictor game have been predicting all 104 games at this World Cup. All three correctly picked the winners of all four quarter-finals. With 100 matches completed, users hold an insurmountable lead with 72 correct predictions (72%). Sutton and AI are tied at 65 correct predictions (65%). AI's predictions are generated using Microsoft Copilot Chat, which was asked to 'predict the results of the World Cup semi-final ties'. The BBC predictor game allows readers to pick a winner from each knockout tie.