World Cup penalty shootout analysis: What the data reveals

The World Cup is entering the knockout stages, bringing the return of penalty shootouts. The 2022 tournament set a record with five shootouts, and with an expanded 48-team format in 2026 featuring a round of 32, that record is likely to be broken. BBC Sport and Opta have analyzed all 320 spot-kicks taken across 35 shootouts since 1982 to uncover trends and insights for this summer's competition.

Which countries excel and struggle in shootouts?

England once held the unwanted record for most missed World Cup shootout penalties with eight, but Spain surpassed them in 2022 after missing all three kicks in their last-16 loss to Morocco, bringing their total to nine. Spain have now lost four of five shootouts, putting them ahead of England and several other nations with three losses.

Argentina are the most successful team, winning six of seven shootouts, including the 2022 final against France. Germany (scoring 17 of 18 kicks) and Croatia have perfect records of four wins from four shootouts. Japan, Mexico, and Romania have lost both of their shootouts. Belgium, South Korea, and Paraguay have scored all five of their kicks, while Switzerland have missed all three.

Individual shootout stars

Only two players have scored penalties in three different World Cup shootouts: Argentina's Lionel Messi and Croatia's Luka Modric, both with a 100% success rate. Messi's included a crucial kick in the 2022 final. Twenty-three players have netted two out of two, while Italy's Roberto Baggio scored two of three but missed the decisive penalty in the 1994 final.

Goalkeepers from Zadar, Croatia, have been particularly effective. Danijel Subasic (2018) and Dominik Livakovic (2022) each saved four spot-kicks in World Cup shootouts, from 10 and eight faced respectively. West Germany's Harald Schumacher (nine faced) and Argentina's Sergio Goycochea (10 faced) also saved four. Subasic, Livakovic, and Portugal's Ricardo are the only keepers to save three penalties in a single shootout. Ricardo holds the highest save percentage at 75% from four kicks faced. Argentina's Emiliano Martinez saved only one penalty in the 2022 final but used mind games to unsettle French takers.

Shooting central is a risky strategy

Players who aim to either side have a significantly higher success rate than those who go down the middle. Kicks to the right score 72.4% of the time, left 71.1%, while central kicks succeed only 61.6%. Central kicks are saved less often (19.2% vs. 22.6% for side kicks), but 19.2% of central attempts miss the target entirely (including hitting the woodwork), compared to just 5.7% for side shots.

Does kick order matter?

There is no clear advantage to shooting first or second: teams going first have won 17 shootouts, those going second 18. The first kicker for each team has the highest success rate at 72.9%, dropping slightly to 71.5% for the second and third rounds. The fourth round sees a dip to 64.2%, rising to 66.7% for the fifth. Only two shootouts have reached sudden death, with a 50% success rate for the sixth-round takers. The least successful position is the eighth overall kicker (the second in the fourth round), who scores only 59.4% of the time.