Chris Sutton's World Cup last-16 predictions: Brazil, France, and more

Only 16 teams remain in the 2026 World Cup, with the final set for 19 July at MetLife Stadium near New York City. BBC Sport football expert Chris Sutton has released his predictions for the knockout stage, building on a strong performance in the last 32 where he correctly forecast 13 of 16 matches.

Sutton's accuracy in the previous round was matched by AI, which also got 12 right, while users outperformed both with 14 correct predictions. Overall, after 88 of 104 tournament matches, users lead with 62 correct predictions (70%), followed by AI at 55 (63%) and Sutton at 54 (61%).

Last-16 ties: Saturday, 4 June

Canada vs Morocco (Houston, 18:00 BST)

Canada, under manager Jesse Marsch, have impressed with their high-intensity style, securing their first World Cup point and first win in this tournament. However, Sutton believes their run ends here. Morocco, who defeated the Netherlands in the last round, are tipped to win and even have a chance to go all the way. 'I actually think Morocco can win this World Cup but, first things first, they will definitely win this game,' Sutton said. He predicts a 2-0 victory for Morocco, while AI forecasts 2-1.

Paraguay vs France (Philadelphia, 22:00 BST)

Paraguay caused a major upset by eliminating Germany in the last 32, but Sutton sees a much tougher challenge against France. 'How this tie goes really depends on whether France score early. If they do, then Paraguay could feel the full force of the flair of the French attack, and Kylian Mbappe is going to fill his boots,' he said. Sutton predicts a 5-0 win for France, while AI expects 3-1.

Sunday, 5 July

Brazil vs Norway (New York, 21:00 BST)

Brazil, managed by Carlo Ancelotti, have shown adaptability but struggled with midfield energy against Japan. Sutton highlights the rivalry between Brazil's Gabriel and Norway's Erling Haaland, noting that Norway are the only team Brazil have never beaten (two draws, two losses since 1998). He also points out that Brazil have lost to the first European opponent they faced in a knockout round at every World Cup since 2002. 'It is going to go the distance – and I just have a feeling that Norway goalkeeper Orjan Nyland will be their hero in the shootout to settle it,' Sutton said. His prediction: Brazil 1-1 Norway (Norway win on penalties). AI predicts 2-1 to Brazil.

The BBC's new predictor game allows readers to pick winners for each knockout tie. AI predictions were generated using Microsoft Copilot Chat, which was asked to 'predict the results of the World Cup last-16 ties'.