Senegal vs Iraq — Match prediction

Senegal secured a dominant 5-0 victory over Iraq in a match that was effectively decided inside the opening quarter-hour. The hosts took an early lead through H. Diarra in the fourth minute, and their task was made significantly easier when Iraq’s R. Sulaka was shown a red card in the 13th minute. A. Seck was booked for Senegal shortly after, but the numerical advantage allowed them to control proceedings.

The decisive moments came in a devastating second-half spell. I. Sarr doubled the lead in the 56th minute, before P. Gueye struck twice in quick succession, scoring in the 59th and 71st minutes. Gueye later received a yellow card, but I. Ndiaye added a fifth in the 82nd minute to complete the rout. Iraq’s A. Al Ammari and M. Doski were also cautioned late on.

The result aligned with our pre-match pick of Senegal, though the scale of the victory was emphatic. The pre-match probabilities gave the home side a 45% chance of winning, with a draw equally likely, but the early red card removed any doubt.

The win provides a major confidence boost for Senegal, while Iraq will rue a disciplined start undone by the early dismissal. The margin of victory underlines Senegal’s ruthlessness when given the advantage.

Senegal and Iraq enter this Group Stage fixture with identical recent form, both having lost their last two matches. That shared run of defeats makes this a difficult one to read, though Senegal’s two losses came in friendlies, while Iraq’s were in competitive settings. Neither side carries momentum, but the clean slate of a new match offers a reset for both.

The statistical matchup leans clearly toward Senegal. Their attack is rated at 75% compared to Iraq’s 25%, suggesting they create and convert chances at a far higher rate. Defensively, the gap is narrower: Senegal at 54% versus Iraq at 46%. The model assigns a 45% win probability to Senegal, another 45% to the draw, and just 10% to an Iraq victory, with a recommended combo of Senegal or draw combined with over 1.5 goals.

No previous meetings between these two sides are recorded, so there is no head-to-head history to draw upon.

Given the form and the numbers, Senegal look the likelier side to avoid defeat. The model’s pick of Senegal to win or draw is consistent with their attacking edge and the low probability of an Iraq win. A tight, low-scoring contest is plausible, but Senegal’s superior attack should give them the better chance of taking something from the match.